Week 3 – PFF Efficiency, Numbers, Info, and Stats (P.E.N.I.S.)

Happy Hump Day and welcome back to the P.E.N.I.S.! I wanna start this week off by congratulating P.E.N.I.S. superstar and inspiration Gardner Minshew on his first win. If you haven’t gotten the P.E.N.I.S. Week 1 or Week 2, I’ve been riding Gardner Minshew all season. I was a fan of Minshew before this Minshew Mania craze took over the NFL. And since Minshew has become the media darling of the league, he won’t have his usual impact on the P.E.N.I.S. this week.

So if I’m not drooling over Minshew’s jock strap this week, what will we be diving into it? I have a heavy QB article for you. We’re gonna take a deeper look into Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, and Jimmy G. We’ll take a look back at Week 3 to talk about some fun facts as well. But first, let’s play another game of Guess Who.

Guess Who:

Like last week, we’re gonna start the PENIS off with a game.

QB A – 3 total TDs, 5 INTs, 56.9% CMP, 3 starts, 1 win

QB B – 4 total TDs, 0 INTs, 65.0% CMP, 1 start, 1 win

QB C – 4 total TDs, 2 INTs, 56.5% CMP, 1 start, 0 wins

QB D – 4 total TDs, 0 INTs, 73.1% CMP, 1 start, 1 win

QB A was knighted as the next best thing since sliced bread. He did GQ interviews all offseason and has a very talented team. QB B was ridiculed all offseason and was labeled a bust before he even set foot on the field. He did most of his work after losing his best player. QB C was forced in due to an injury. He hasn’t been fantastic but he’s at least shown signs of possible development. QB D was forced in due to an injury. He has played one game and looked really good.

QB A is Baker Mayfield, QB B is Daniel Jones, QB C is Mason Rudolph, and QB D is Kyle Allen.

There’s still plenty of time for Baker to turn things around but right now it’s just ugly. Baker and Kitchens are holding back an offense filled with talent. Things don’t get any easier anytime soon for Baker. He gets @BAL, @SF, SEA, and then @NE. This team could easily be 2-5 through the first 6 weeks. We’ll talk a bit more about Baker later.

 

Look Back At It 🍑 – Week 3:

1. Daniel Jones was pressured on 47% of his dropbacks. He completed 80% of pressured attempts for 233 yards, 2 TDs, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. (Per Pat_Thorman)
   • That’s the 4th-most pressured passing yards by any QB in any regular season game in PFF history (2007-2019) Over that span, there are 1,674 instances of a QB attempting at least 12 pressured pass attempts in a game. Jones is the first to record a perfect passer rating. (Per ScottBarrettDFB)
   • Here’s a list of QBs who have thrown for 330 yards, passed for 2 TDs, and rushed for 2 TDs since 1990: Steve Young (3 times), Aaron Rodgers (2 times), Michael Vick, Drew Brees, DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, and Daniel Jones.
   • In other words, Daniel Jones was really good.
2. 14% of Carson Wentz’s passes were dropped last week (5 total). The Eagles are 1-2 but they feel like they are a couple drops away from being 3-0.
3. The Falcons may have lost but boy was Matt Ryan good this week. 304 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and a 91% Adj CMP %.
4. Oakland TE Darren Waller and Chargers’ WR Keenan Allen both had 13 receptions on 13 catchable passes.
   • That’s the most RECs by anyone this year in a single week without a drop.
5. Leonard Fournette had his longest run of the season – a 69 (nice) yarder. He finished the game with 15 rushes for 66 yards.
6. Can we take a minute to recognize one of the most underrated offensive linemen in football? Ronnie Stanley allowed no sacks, pressure, hurries, or hits on 50 pass snaps this week. In fact, he’s allowed just 1 hurry and 1 pressure all year long.
7. Tampa ER Shaquil Barrett had himself a day on Sunday – 4 sacks, 1 HIT, 3 hurries, and 8 pressures.
8. Green Bay LB Preston Smith took advantage of Flacco’s inability to move this weekend. 3 sacks, 2 hurries, and 5 pressures.
9. Let’s talk kickers. I absolutely love PFF’s advanced analytics and it’s what I use the majority of this article. But, there grades suck dick. Somehow, Bucs K Matt Gay (2 missed XP and a missed GW 34 yard FG) wasn’t the worst graded kicker this week. He wasn’t even the 2nd worst.
10. And because we talked about kickers, let’s give a shout out to a punter. Patriot’s punter Jake Bailey downed 6 of his 7 punts inside the 20 yard line.

P.E.N.I.S. PREP FOR WEEK 4 AND BEYOND:

1. QBs who have played in all 3 games pressured less than Dak Prescott and Jimmy G:
   • It’s literally no one.
   • They have been pressured 21 times in 3 games.
   • In fact, only 3 QBs have a lower % of pressured drop backs than Dak.
     • None of them have played in all 3 games.
     • Two of the three have less than 7 total drop backs.
2. There are 15 QBs who have been pressured at least twice as many times as Dak and Jimmy G.
3. Dak Prescott has been sacked twice all year. PFF credits him with allowing 1 of those sacks.
4. Both of these QBs are bound to be under pressure as the competition gets tougher. How have Dak and Jimmy G actually played under pressure? Remember, each of these QBs have only been under pressure on 21 drop backs so the sample size is small.  
   • Dak: 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 66.7% Adj CMP %, and a passer rating of 59.2. He also leads the league with a 9.52% pressure drop back to INT rate*
     • *This isn’t an official PFF stat. It’s simply pressured INTs divided by total pressured drop backs.
   • Jimmy G: 1 TD, 1 INT, 62.5% Adj CMP %, and a passer rating of 78.0. He also has a 4.76% pressure drop back to INT rate.
5. Dak has flourished through the first 3 weeks against teams with a combined 1-8 record. Jimmy G has struggled vs teams that are a combined 1-8. Point is, if you are banking on these two QBs in fantasy or as a fan of either team, lower your expectations for the rest of the year.
   • I fully expect Dak to regress back his mean. The real kicker here is, what the hell is Jimmy G going to regress to when the competition gets stiffer?
6. Also, if you’re someone who is upset that Jimmy G dated a pornstar (looking at you Colin Cowherd), what are you expecting? This is a 27 year old man who goes by Jimmy. I mean, Jimmy G literally sounds like a porn name.
7. While we’re talking about porn, anyone into that cousin stuff? Cause, Kirk Cousins is fucking the entire Vikings offense. Through 3 games, Cousins average time to attempt is 2.97 seconds. This is leading to Cousins being pressured on a whooping 52.2% of his drop backs.
   • In case you didn’t read last week’s article, COUSINS CAN’T PASS UNDER PRESSURE. He’s significantly worse as a passer over the course of his career.
   • Cousins has spent the majority of his career in the 2.5 range of time to attempt. I guess the real question becomes, why is Cousins holding onto the ball so long? Even in 3 games with Stefanski as the OC last season, Cousins still got the ball out in 2.7 seconds (which already is a long time).
8. Do you wanna know a quarterback getting totally screwed by his offensive line? Not Baker Mayfield.
   • Mayfield is being pressured on 38% of his attempts (15th in the league). On average, QBs were pressured on 37.8% of their drop backs last season.
   • When kept clean, Mayfield ranks 30th in adjusted completion % (72.2%), tied 1st in interceptions (3), and 27th in passer rating (90.2).
   • His time to attempt ranks 30th in the league (2.74 seconds) and when he holds onto the ball for 2.5 seconds or more, he has the third worst passer rating in football (48.0).
   • In fact, Mayfield seems totally dependent on the play action fooling the defense. When the Browns don’t run play action, Mayfield has the 3rd worst passer rating (58.3), 4 INTs, and a completion % of 52.9%.
   • With all that being said, is this all on Mayfield? Probably not. He hasn’t been good but Freddie Kitchens should take the bulk of the blame.
9. Shaq Barnett had a clause in his contract where he would receive $250,000 if he reached 8 sacks. He already has 8 sacks.
10. What is wrong with Marson Lattimore? While Lattimore was never an elite CB, he was always good. This year, he leads the league in yards allowed through 3 weeks and he’s 45 yards above DeAndre Baker, who is the 2nd worst.
11. John Ross Draft Tracker: 5 drops, 27.8 DRP%
    • The rest of the Bengals: 2 drops
    • Of players with 20+ targets, the next closest player (Amari Cooper) has a 15.8 DRP %.

 

THE Accolades:

MONO MAN OF THE WEEK: Sam Darnold, NYJ

Every week Sam Darnold misses because of mono, I’m going to remind Jets fans that Darnold would rather kiss girls than play football. The Jets have a bye this week so technically Darnold isn’t missing anything.

SLOT SHAMER OF THE WEEK: Cooper Kupp, LAR