Folks, with training camps now underway, we’re getting close to the start of real football. By now, the roster building season is pretty much done albeit for a few depth pieces here and there. You know where each team stands in terms of their core group of guys and you can use that to predict how games will go.
Now the one thing we can’t predict is health and some teams get hit harder by the injury bug each and every year. The San Francisco 49ers were the all injury team last season and you can bet your bottom dollar that at least one team will be in their predicament this season which would render this prediction useless.
With that being said, I will break down the Giants opponents into the following tiers: Lock to Win, Probable Win, Toss Up, Probable Loss, and Would Need a Miracle to win.
Let’s get it going with the locks!
Lock to Win Games
These are the games where I’d be completely shocked if the Giants lost. There aren’t very many on the schedule but these games should all be wins.
Week 3 vs Atlanta: There’s no chance the Giants are losing a game to the Falcons when they’re retiring Eli Manning’s number at halftime and the Falcons are entering a rebuild with a new coach and a new GM. This will easily be a win if this Giants team is worth anything.
Week 12 vs Philadelphia and Week 16 vs Philadelphia: Guys, the Eagles completely suck this year. They’re a disgrace to the NFL. On top of that, the Giants are not going to forget how the Eagles threw the final game of the regular season last year costing them a playoff spot. This team will be prepared and ready to make the Eagles feel pain.
Probable Win Games
These are the games where I’d give the Giants a 60/40 chance of winning.
Week 1 vs Denver: The Giants need to start hot this year and setting the tone at home against the Broncos will get this season off to a good start.
Week 7 vs Carolina: The Panthers are doing their rebuild properly but I just don’t see how the Giants don’t beat them in this game so long as Christian McCaffrey doesn’t run wild.
Week 9 vs Las Vegas: The Raiders are traveling west to east playing a 1:00pm EST game but the Giants will be coming off of a short week after playing the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. I’d still give the edge to the Giants here.
Week 17 at Chicago: The Giants own the Bears first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft so that should be an added bonus to win this game. The Bears will either be quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who is terrible, or a rookie who has a high ceiling but has issues processing the game in Justin Fields. If the Giants are going to be a playoff contender this season then this needs to be a win.
Toss Up Games
These are the 50/50 games on the schedule.
All divisional games against Washington and Dallas: If anything is clear to me this year it’s that the NFC East is a three team race with the Washington DC NFL Franchise, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants. In an ideal world, the Giants will win all four of these games but in the most likely scenario, the giants will go 2-2 in their games against Washington and Dallas.
Week 4 at New Orleans: In previous seasons this would likely be a loss but without Drew Brees under center for the Saints, there’s a lot of unknowns surrounding their team. It’s too soon to call this one either way but we should have some more clarity by Week 4.
Week 13 at Miami: If Tua Tagovailoa is good this season then this game will likely lean in the Dolphins favor. If he’s not, I’d give the advantage to the Giants so long as Daniel Jones isn’t terrible.
Week 14 at Los Angeles Chargers: I will never forgive Justin Herbert for not declaring for the 2019 NFL Draft to go back to Oregon to play with his brother who ended up playing in just one game in the 2019 college season. He would have been a Giant if he declared.
There’s only one game in this category. I’d give a 60/40 advantage to the Giants opponent here.
Week 6 vs Los Angeles Rams: The Rams are surprisingly good going west to east and playing 1:00pm EST games with a 6-2 record under head coach Sean McVay. This team now also has a top 10 quarterback in Matthew Stafford. I’m not saying that the Giants can’t win this game but it’s not likely.
Would Need a Miracle to Win
Week 8 at Kansas City: Monday Night Football in Arrowhead. Need I say more? The Giants offense is not going to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This one could be ugly.
Week 11 at Tampa Bay: I’ll be in the stands for this game and the Giants haven’t won with me in attendance since they beat the Houston Texans in 2006. George Bush was still the President the last time the Giants won a game I attended. On top of that, the Buccaneers are poised to be one of the best teams in the league again.
The Giants have a ceiling this season of eleven wins in my eyes. That would mean they win all 7 games I predicted them to win and then four of the toss up games. If things go south, their win floor would likely be six games. That would mean winning just the three games that are locks and then three of the probable wins/toss ups.
When it’s all said and done, I really can’t envision eleven wins happening but I also can’t envision just six wins happening. I’d peg the Giants as an 8-10 win team this season.
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