The New York Giants are heavily favored to extend new contracts to two of their top playmakers from the 2022 NFL Season. Daniel Jones may be in line for a multi-year deal worth nearly $35 million a year. Saquon Barkley may be in line for a multi-year deal worth nearly $15 million a year. With an estimated $45 to $55 million in cap space, GM Joe Schoen has his work cut out for him.
Schoen may already be convinced that Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can get this team to a 5th Super Bowl win. If Jones and Barkley return, this type of team build would rewrite the entire history of winning the Super Bowl.
What Does the Raw Data Say about QB Salaries?
If Patrick Mahomes walks away with a Super Bowl victory this Sunday, he will become the highest paid QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl. Mahomes cap hit this season is $35.7 million. This is 17% of the Kansas City Chiefs overall cap. Therefore Mahomes would also become the QB with the highest overall cap hit percentage to win a Super Bowl.
Tom Brady is the next highest paid QB to win the Super Bowl at $25 million in 2020. This accounted for 12% of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers overall cap. Brady takes home the honors for 3rd highest paid as well. He was paid 22 million in 2018 when the Patriots won the Super Bowl or 12% of the 2018 Patriots salary cap.
What about Daniel Jones?
If Daniel Jones receives a multi year deal worth the estimated $35 million a season, he would account for 15.5% of the Giants 2023 Cap. No QB has ever won a Super Bowl that accounted for more that 12% of their team’s overall cap. That is, once again unless Mahomes wins Super Bowl LVII. Considering Mahomes is in a tier by himself, a win should be seen as an anamoly.
Afterall, the last 20 years of Super Bowl Data averages an overall cap hit for a QB at 7.9%.
What Does the Raw Data Say about RB Salaries?
The highest cap hit for a RB in Superbowl history is $10.5 million dollars. This distinction belongs to Reggie Bush and the New Orleans Saints. Bush accounted for 8.7% of the Saints overall cap during the 2009 Saints Super Bowl win.
The next highest cap hit belongs to Marshawn Lynch at $8.5 million dollars. This was 6.2% of the Seahawks cap in 2013.
After Reggie Bush and Marshawn Lynch, the next highest overall cap hit for a RB is under 4%. The average cap hit percentage for a RB is 2.1%.
What about Saquon Barkley?
Barkley signing with the Giants for $15 million a season will account for 6.6% of the Giants 2023 total cap. Therefore Barkley would become the highest paid running back to win a Super Bowl in NFL history. He would also be the RB who accounted for the second highest overall cap percentage in NFL history.
How about the Whole Picture?
No team in NFL History has won the Super Bowl with a QB/RB combo who has accounted for more than 17.3% of the overall salary cap. Even if the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVII, they will tie the 2009 New Orleans Saints for highest overall cap designation for a QB/RB combo.
In 2009, the Saints designated 8.7% of the cap to Drew Brees and 8.6% to Reggie Bush.
Whoever wins the Superbowl this season will either tie or make history.
A Kansas City Chiefs win sees Patrick Mahomes counting for 17% of the overall cap. Isiah Pacheco counts for 0.3% of the overall cap. This would tie the 2009 New Orleans Saints with 17.3% overall cap designated to a QB/RB combo.
A Philadelphia Eagles win would see the lowest salary cap designation of all time given to a QB/RB combo. Jalen Hurts counts for 0.7% of the current salary cap. Miles Sanders counts for 0.8% of the current cap. The Eagles have designated 1.5% of their 2022 salary cap to their QB/RB.
This would crush the current record held by the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs who designated 4% of their salary cap to Patrick Mahomes and LeSean McCoy.
Should Jones and Barkley resign at the current market rate, the Giants would stand defiantly against NFL history. A Super Bowl win would see the highest cap designation to a QB/RB combination in NFL history. This Giants would need to designate 22.1% of their 2023 salary cap to Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.
This type of team build has not worked once in the entirety of NFL history. I have confidence in Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll but rewriting history may not be in the cards.